Pew report on the future of the Internet
CBS MarketwatchPew Internet & American Life Project asked almost 1,200 technology specialists, scholars, and industry leaders for their opinions about the future of the Internet.
Future of the Internet - Pew Internet & American Life ProjectMain predictions include:
Experts are both in awe and in frustration about the state of the internet. They celebrate search technology, peer-to-peer networks, and blogs; they bemoan institutions that have been slow to change.
Increase in civic involvement because people can easily use the Net to participate in discussions and join organizations
The rise of the blog will bring radical change to the news and publishing industry
File swapping and music-file sharing over anonymous, free, peer-to-peer networks will still be easy to perform a decade from now
59% of these experts agreed with a prediction that more government and business surveillance will occur as computing devices proliferate and become embedded in appliances, cars, phones, and even clothes.
57% of them agreed that virtual classes will become more widespread in formal education and that students might at least occasionally be grouped with others who share their interests and skills, rather than by age
56% agreed that as telecommuting and home-schooling expand, the boundary between work and leisure will diminish and family dynamics will change because of that.
Some 66% agreed that at least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years on the networked information infrastructure or the country’s power grid
By 2014, all media, including audio, video, print, and voice, will stream in and out of the home or office via the internet. Computers that coordinate and control video games, audio, and video will become the centerpiece of the living room and will link to networked devices around the household, replacing the television's central place in the
Specific quotes of interest:
“Anything that has involved an intermediary will be changed. New kinds of intermediaries will emerge, but the old ones – especially in businesses that have created high margins by being in the middle of transactions – will find their very existences at risk.” – Dan Gillmor, longtime technology journalist
James Brancheau, a vice president at GartnerG2 who analyzes the media industry, wrote, “Connections across media, entertainment, advertising, and commerce will become stronger with future margins going to a new breed of ‘digital media titans.’ These companies may not come from the traditional value chain, they will be far more aggressive than existing players. The incumbents are not moving fast enough. Well-branded innovators such as Google and Starbucks have a chance to build all-new new distribution models tied to ad revenue and retail sales.”
Peter M. Shane, professor of law at Ohio State University and the editor of Democracy Online, wrote, “The most radical changes will likely involve the workplace, because of the economic incentives involved, and processes of artistic creation, because the internet is such a fabulous new medium of creation and distribution. I hope for real, but more modest gains in the contribution of the internet to our democratic life.”
“Hyperlinks subvert hierarchy. The Net will wear away institutions that have forgotten how to sound human and how to engage in conversation.” – David Weinberger, a fellow at Harvard's Berkman Institute for Internet & Society and blogger extraordinaire
Some experts focused on the commercial aspects of the prediction. Bob Metcalfe, inventor of ethernet and founder of 3Com, wrote, “We must and therefore will fix this problem. Private property is too valuable an economic tool.” Another expert agreed, but rather more bitterly wrote, “We're headed towards digital prohibition. The bastards are going to win.”
The survey ends with the most forward-looking question: “What are you anxious to see happen? What is your dream application, or where would you hope to see the most path-breaking developments in the next decade?” A fuller rundown of written responses can be found at: http://www.elon.edu/predictions/q24.aspx.
Lois Ambash, president of Metaforix.com, wrote, “My dream application is a fail-safe, user- controlled, user-friendly privacy screen that would allow people to reap all the benefits of cyberspace with none of the personal risks. What I am most anxious to see is genuine conversation between geeks and newbies. Many people who could reap great benefits from the internet are hampered by the jargon barrier (and other language barriers, such as reading level and lack of facility in English)... My dream situation – as opposed to application – will occur when beta testing routinely requires that any intelligent adult be able to use the product or application competently without a geek in the family or a lengthy interaction with tech support.”
The report ends with a quote from one of the experts..."“I never would have expected that such a high percentage of people would be utterly dependent upon the internet for such a large proportion of their daily communication activities. If you took it away, we would be shell-shocked. But ten years ago, we didn't even have it!”"
posted by Jen @ 8:50 am
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